Publicly Released: January 30, 2020
The objective of this evaluation was to determine whether warning intelligence information from the U.S. European Command (USEUCOM) Joint Intelligence Operations Center (JIOCEUR) and the JIOCEUR Analytic Center (JAC) provided senior officials adequate information to make decisions based on notification of a potential threat to U.S. or allied interests.
As part of this evaluation, we determined whether USEUCOM's warning procedures incorporated the combatant commanders' responsibilities identified in DoD Directive (DoDD) 3115.16 and Joint Intelligence Operations Center (110C) Execute Order, Modification 3.
The DoDD 3115.16 establishes policy, assigns responsibilities, and provides guidance for the Defense Warning Network within the DoD. The DoDD 3115.16 defines the Defense Warning Network as "a collaborative and integrated network made up of DoD organizations, that provides senior decision makers warning on emerging and enduring warning threats to U.S. and allied interests." An emerging warning concern is a newly identified issue relevant to national security that is significant enough to warrant temporary attention by the Defense Intelligence Enterprise. Enduring warning threats are longstanding potential threats to U.S. interests, which are usually linked to contingency plans.
According to the Defense Warning Network Handbook, Intelligence professionals provide leaders with warning about situations that may threaten national and allied nations' security interests. Timely and insightful understanding enables effective warning and allows decision makers the opportunity to avoid or mitigate the impacts of those threats.
The DoDD 3115.16 requires combatant commanders to "maximize red team capabilities in support of the warning mission and forward red team products to the Director, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), for database integration, as appropriate."
According to the Joint Publication 5-0, "red teams complement intelligence efforts by offering independent, alternative assessments and differing interpretations of information. This includes critical reviews of intelligence products, considering problem sets from alternative perspectives, and helping contribute informed speculation when reliable information is lacking."
We recommend that the USEUCOM Commander:
• appoint a USEUCOM Directorate lead for red team capabilities in support of the U.S. European Command's warning mission;
• amend the USEUCOM Joint Intelligence Operations Center Indications and Warning Advocate Team Mission Procedures to incorporate the use of red team capabilities; and
• develop procedures to forward red team products to the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency for database integration.
Management Comments and Our Response
The USEUCOM Director of Intelligence, responding for the USEUCOM Commander, did not agree or disagree with our recommendations. However, the Director stated that he will hire one full-time employee as a Warning Advocate Analyst to oversee warning-related red team functions. The Director also stated that he will develop procedures to forward red team products to the Defense Intelligence Agency Director. Therefore, the recommendations are resolved but will remain open. We will close the recommendation once we receive documentation showing that the analyst has been appointed and the procedures are developed.
In addition, the USEUCOM Director of Intelligence amended the USEUCOM JIOCEUR Indications and Warning Advocate Team Mission procedures to reflect red team aspects in warning activities. Therefore, this recommendation is closed and no further comments are required.
This report is the product of Proj. No. D2019-DISPA2-0113.000.